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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys will submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five documents. Several concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would constitute assurances matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would never accept forces of Nato countries operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the issue of land. A key demand centers on Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine wants to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security units rather than the army in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Not legally or in practice will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” commented the president, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.