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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It often acts as a form of apology. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. However, it fuels an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or just the greatest upset.

Yet the latest race is fundamentally unique. The pool of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with recent division winners falling away and longtime underperformers improving in unison. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this turbulent and fun season, he's facing five other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right system, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his special ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to spin magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But this is not a typical season!

Where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee following his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still